The Reassessment Effort - Analyzing the Implications of the Israeli Relevancy Gap

The reassessment effort is in its final stages. A final draft covering the relevancy gap between the Israeli mindset on national security and the changing regional and international reality has been completed and is now being reviewed by Reut's management.

Our main challenge in producing the document was in taking the insights we developed regarding the recent tectonic shifts in the Middle East and analyzing their effect on the relevance of some of Israel's main national security principles.

Here are the main effects we identified, in general terms:

• Israel's ability to achieve its aim of "end of conflict" with its regional advertisers by conducting political negotiations is eroding - Borders are becoming a pre-condition for negotiation rather than a political bargaining chip. At the same time, essential matters, such as the refuges problem, are becoming central core issues.
• Israel's ability to affect reality by using military power is diminishing - The relevance and legitimacy of Israeli military power is impaired in a reality of weak regional regimes, which cannot control the actors in their own sphere, and a growing challenge to Israel's international image.
• Israel's ability to confront future threats on its own is decreasing - Many of the major threats facing Israel in the future are multi-national in nature or posed in a strategic regional context (Iranian nuclear, cyber, delegitimization) and therefore cannot be met by its national capacities alone.
• Danger of a trickling effect of the "Implosion Strategy" to Arab nations - Reut coined the term implosion strategy to describe a mode-of-operation adopted mainly by Hamas and Hizbollah to cause Israel to implode from within by using a combination of violent and non-violent tactics. Arab countries, which are still bound by peace treaties/armistice agreements with Israel, might adopt a similar non-violent anti-Israeli strategy that would enable them to attack Israel without facing the severe repercussions of flagrantly violating the peace agreements or initiating war.
• Growing potential for the formation of joint combined coalitions against Israel in a case of aggravated conflict - Some of the regional regimes that used to play the role of restraints against escalation have lost their power. Their decline means that the probability of an alliance formation between different and even contradictory regional actors is rising. This escalatory development is especially feasible in a reality where Israel's frication with the three main regional raising actors - Iran, Turkey, and Egypt - is intensified.

At the same time - we identify a Middle Eastern ecosystem that is transforming from a closed to an open system. The decline of the traditional gate-keepers (the old regimes) and of the traditional method of point-to-point diplomacy between elites, in conjunction with a new set of surging economic and social needs in the Arab world, exposes an opportunity for new interfaces through different levels of engagement between Israel and the Arab world.

Designing Strategic Response Guidelines

Analyzing the mindset of the Israeli system, we have seen indications that this system is starting to recognize the need to reassess its policy in light of recent events. However, lacking a clear alternative framework, it tends to hold on to its traditional mindset and avoid making fundamental changes in a time of uncertainty.

Understanding this systemic position, we have come to the conclusion that our paper must include general conceptual guidelines for a new policy. At this stage we are focusing on developing the following concepts as part of the response mechanism:

• 'Total Foreign Policy' revolution to change the basic thinking on how to promote Israeli national interests in the global sphere. This new concept aspires to involve and utilize the myriad organizations and individuals populating Israel's civil, cultural, and business spheres into a joint national effort in the international arena. This effort is aimed at creating many more points of international and regional interface, with depth of substance that can be more adaptive to, and resilient in the face of, future challenges.
• n Creation of a 'New Seminar,' characterized by a joint cross-systematic effort that will revisit the known and hidden assumptions set forth by Ben-Gurion in his original 'Seminar' of 1947, which outlined the pillars of Israel's national security strategy. The main emphasis of the 'new seminar' would be to turn national security policy into an ongoing debate involving a growing number of actors from the civil level and dealing with the most fundamental assumptions of the current concepts.

Establishing an Impact Strategy - Utilizing a Network of Thinkers

Reflecting our understanding of the need to involve a wider spectrum of actors in the process of re-thinking Israel's national security, we are currently examining the possibility of forming a group of thinkers from different layers of the Israeli system that will take a central part in solidifying our response mechanism.

In this regard, we perceive our paper to be the starting point of a joint cross-systematic debate aimed at creating new methods to confront Israel's national security challenges in the 21th century.