Growth Accelerations

This article focuses on turning points in growth performance that result in growth accelerations, and the unpredictable nature of sustained growth.

This article focuses on turning points in growth performance. It studies 80 instances of sustained rapid acceleration in economic growth lasting 8 years or more to determine their causes.

Trade, investment, exchange rate depreciations and other external shocks trigger growth episodes that tend to fizzle out.

Democratization and fundamental economic liberalization trigger sustained accelerations in economic growth.

However, growth accelerations are highly unpredictable. The most powerful predictor of growth accelerations, economic liberalization, precedes or accompanies only 20% of the recorded instances. Further work is required to determine the underlying causes.

Growth Accelerations